Despite an 0-3 start to the season (a start that usually spells doom for any team’s playoff hopes), the Houston Texans have reeled off nine straight wins and sit atop the AFC South at 9-3. With only four games left to go and with the Texans currently tied with the Patriots for second in the overall AFC standings, is it possible that a once putrid season could turn into a first-round bye? Well let’s take a closer look.
Schedule Outlook
As mentioned before, the Texans have four games left on their schedule with each opponent currently at .500 or worse. Let’s take a look at each of the remaining games and try and predict how the Texans will fare.
December 9: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Last time these two teams met (Week 4 in Indy), they grinded it out through an overtime game that saw the Texans win 37-34. Back then, both these teams were under .500 and were tied for last in the AFC South. Since then, the Texans have won eight more games and the Colts have gone 5-3 (which included a five game winning streak). So what do we have in store for this rematch? Well, likely the same outcome. The main issue for the Colts is that they don’t fare very well on the road, having gone 2-4 in road match-ups this year and averaging a measly 22.8 PPG (compared to the 31.3 they average at home). The Texans however have been dominant at NRG, having gone 5-1 overall and winning by an average of nearly 17 PPG in their last three home games. While you can never count out any divisional rival, I think this is a game the Texans should be able to win.
Prediction: Texans 31, Colts 24
December 15: at New York Jets:
The Jets very well surprised many football fans when they nearly upset the division rival Tennessee Titans during this past week’s matchup in Nashville. If it weren’t for a putrid fourth quarter that saw New York get outscored 13-0, the Texan’s could’ve clinched the division during next week’s game against the Colts. So unless Tennessee also loses to Jacksonville that same week, Houston will have the chance to clinch their fifth AFC South title in eight years against the Jets at Metlife. Is this a trap game? Oh you betcha. While the Jets have some fairly bad losses (like the 41-10 blowout at the hands of the Buffalo Bills), they also have some surprises in their 34-16 win over the Broncos (the same team that’s beaten the Steelers and Chargers) and their 42-34 win over the Colts. Not to mention that they competed for three quarters against the 9-3 Patriots before losing 27-13. While the Texans should win this game, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets keep it close and/or potentially win this game.
Prediction: Texans 24, Jets 14
December 23: at Philadelphia Eagles:
Out of all the games left on the Texans’ schedule, this one looks like the most likely to be a loss. This all does depend on whether or not the Eagles are in the playoff hunt however. If the Eagles suffer back-to-back losses against the Cowboys and Rams, I could see the Eagles just not risking anymore injuries and playing conservatively (very well increasing the Texans’ chances to win). However if the Eagles are still in contention for a playoff spot come December 23, this will definitely be a hard game for the Texans. I think the Texans should still be the slight favorites in this game, but depending on how each team looks during the next two weeks this could gradually change.
Prediction: Texans 21, Eagles 20
December 30: Jaguars at Texans:
Assuming that the Texans have won their last three games, this game will indeed play a role in whether or not the Texans clinch a first round bye. Win, and they have a shot. Lose, and that means they’ll play the 6th seed in the Wild Card round. With that being said, I fully expect Deshaun Watson and co. to come out swinging during the first half and try and blow the game open early so they can rest during the second. It remains to be seen whether or not the Jaguars let that happen, but given the Jaguars road woes this season (1-4 on the season) and Cody Kessler replacing Blake Bortles, I think that will likely not be the case/
Prediction: Texans 28, Jaguars 14
Any chance for a First-Round bye?
As of right now, FiveThirtyEight gives the Texans a 29% chance at a first-round bye. That’s currently third-best in the AFC right now, behind the Patriots (75%) and Chiefs (80%). I’d say that’s a spot-on representation so far, as the Texans trail the Chiefs by one game for the number one seed and lose the tiebreaker with the Patriots for the second seed. However the route for the Texans lies in running the table (as in, winning all the remaining games) and rooting for other AFC teams. The Chiefs have potentially dangerous games against the Ravens, Chargers and Seahawks coming up, whereas the Patriots have a match-up with the Steelers in Pittsburgh and a potential trap game against the Dolphins in Miami. If all lines up perfectly, the Texans could be looking at potential home-field advantage throughout the entire AFC playoffs. However, the Patriots and Chiefs will likely win at least one of those two/three match-ups and it’s not a sure thing the Texans will win the remainder of their games. With the way things are currently going, the Texans are going to need some help.
Conclusion
No matter the outcome of these next few games, the Texans have already matched their highest win total since 2014 and have shown great promise with a young Deshaun Watson and stellar defense. They may not win the Super Bowl this year, but one thing is definitely for certain. The future is bright in H-town!
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